Dealing With Campaign 2024: Some Historical Perspectives.

It’s mid-July 2024, before the major party political conventions, and as I look at the state of social media and the blogs/newsletters I subscribe to, it’s hard not to notice a sense of panic among those of us who recognize the existential threat that Donald Trump poses to American democracy. I observe that most of this panic comes from the reaction to various media reports about what’s going on with Biden and the Democratic Party. A friend of mine (and a reader of this blog) even emailed me recently for my comment on these events, from a historical perspective. I thought it might be worth a column—intended primarily as a bit of more private advice to close friends and readers, which is why it is shared at the paid-tier level—to share some of my thoughts on it. As you know, I don’t often write articles focused purely on current events and politics, but it seems this is a good time to do so.

Before the “fold”—that is, the portion of this article that’s behind the paywall—let me share with you a quote from historian Allan J. Lichtman, whose expertise is analyzing U.S. Presidential elections. The source of this quote is an article published in the Social Education journal, here. Dr. Lichtman says:

“[P]olitics as usual by the challenging candidate will have no impact on results. Whether or not the sitting president is seeking reelection, the American electorate chooses a president according to how well the White House party has governed the nation, as measured by the consequential events and episodes of a term. Nothing a candidate has said or done during a campaign, when the public discounts everything as political, has changed his prospects at the polls. Debates, advertising, television appearances, news coverage, and campaign strategies—the usual grist for the punditry mills—count for virtually nothing on Election Day.”

So here are my thoughts.