When history gives us a new precedent.

This past week has been an extraordinary one in American political history. As a historian, I usually try to evaluate the events of the present through the lens of the past: what’s happened before, what historical conditions today’s trends resemble, and what decisions are likely to be made in the near future based on what’s happened thus far. But history sometimes does throw us a curve ball and flow outside of its usual established channels. This weekend, with President Joe Biden’s resignation from the 2024 Presidential race and Kamala Harris stepping up as the Democratic nominee, history has given us a new precedent. What’s happened in the past two days, I think, will probably be remembered as the turning point of this election, and quite possibly in American history.

There is simply no precedent for what Biden did on Sunday. I’m the first to admit I was wrong about what Biden would do. I had assumed (see this article) that the flap about his age and competence was media-driven and likely to be ephemeral in the end, and that he’d stay in the race. I was right, however, when I said that “a sitting President, in all of American history has never bowed out of the race at such a point [after the nomination process was substantially complete].” That’s the precedent that Biden shattered, in an act of what will probably be remembered as extraordinary political courage and selflessness. With this act, that letter that he signed on Sunday, July 21, bowing out of the Presidential race, Biden secured himself a unique place in American history.

What’s even more remarkable is how the Democratic Party responded. While there were encouraging signs late Sunday that Vice-President Kamala Harris was going to have a good reception as Biden’s anointed successor, I was astonished to look at my phone yesterday evening and see that she’s already vacuumed up all the delegates she needs to clinch the nomination at the Milwaukee convention. In fact, the Democrats may not even wait for the convention to make it official: I also read (unconfirmed at this writing) that they may take an official vote of the delegates by conference call and formally designate Harris as the nominee in the next few days. This morning she received the unqualified endorsements of every major labor union in the country. I’m not aware of any major party nominee in U.S. history who has united his or her party so completely, and so quickly.

This, believe it or not, is going to make the difference. In my July 13 article urging those of us who fear the end of democracy under Donald Trump not to panic in the midst of the controversy over Biden, I linked to this article, historian Allan J. Lichtman’s “13 Keys to the Presidency,” a predictor of Presidential contest results based not on polls but on historical indicators. Although what happened this weekend was unprecedented, and one can make an argument that the usual historical indicators that govern other Presidential elections do not apply in this extraordinary year of 2024, if you assume for the sake of argument they do apply, and you go through Dr. Lichtman’s analysis, you’ll see that the keys still favor a Democratic victory. But the critical key now that Biden is out of the race is key number two—“there is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.” If that statement is true, which it appears to be, the incumbent party in the White House (Democrats) have enough factors in their favor to hold it.

Of course, Biden’s act may have shattered Lichtman’s keys in any event. Harris, a former prosecutor, is a formidable opponent against Donald Trump, an insane convicted felon who has already lost the popular vote for President twice in a row. What is fascinating about this shake-up of the race is that it may well represent a generational shift in power in the United States. Kamala Harris was born in 1964, the final year of what is usually bracketed as the Baby Boom generation. She replaces Biden, born in 1942, the “Silent Generation,” and will likely defeat Donald Trump, born 1946, a quintessential elderly Baby Boomer. If Harris represents a transition of political influence from gray-haired old men to younger, savvier and more energetic people of color, that’s a major sea change in American history.

That doesn’t even touch the obviously seismic issue of being the first woman President. In 2016, the voters of the United States clearly signaled their readiness for that transition—I remind you again that Hillary Clinton won more popular votes than Donald Trump, who was a minority President elected as a fluke of the Electoral College math. If Kamala Harris wins in November 2024, the American electorate will be saying in effect, “No, you didn’t hear us the first time—we do want a woman as President.” I, for one, am quite happy to have the opportunity to send that message.

Of course, the election is still months away, and the Democratic Party must, in order to win it, do the things it has to do: raise money, mobilize voters, craft a cogent vision for the future, etc. Trump will keep fighting to the end, because becoming President again and pardoning himself is the only possible way to avoid the prison cell, or at least the electronic ankle monitor, in which he will likely spend his bitter and hopeless final years of life. It’s not over by any means, and, as was demonstrated Sunday, anything can happen. Furthermore, even if Harris wins, the real nightmare will only begin for her: dealing with the climate crisis, the inevitable backlash from Trump’s sycophants, international provocation from Putin or Kim Jong-un, the list is endless. We are undoubtedly in a period of global societal upheaval. It’s no time to be complacent.

History does sometimes surprise us. The past few days have shown us how true that still is. Now we have to go forward and finish the job, for the survival of our nation and our democracy.

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